摘要
本文提出了一个首先考虑地震时空非均匀性的离散概率模型。在该模型中,假定未来一定时间内同一统计空间的同类地震活动参数,其概率密度具有相似而且连续的半无限分布形式;离散化之后,得到年超越概率的综合表达式及其相应的解析近似。地震统计空间,内属各潜在震源区地震活动性的空间差异,可以归结为地震年累积频度按权重向量或权重矩阵的折减。在对震级进行积分时,本文将仅适用于前者的McGuirc解析结果作了推广,得到同时可以考虑两者的一般解析表达式,从而提高了计算精度与效率。
In this paper a discrete probabilistic model is proposed,which considers first the non-stationarity of seismicity in time and non-homogeneity in space.It is assumed in the model that the probabilistic density function of seismicity parameters in the same seismic statistical space are similarly and continuously distributed in the semi-infinite domain of definition.After their discretion,it is possible to obtain the expression and analytical approximation for the annual probability of exceedance.The spatial difference of seismicity for each source zone in a statistical space can be attributed to the weighted reduction (the weights in vector or matrix form) of the annual cumulative frequence.In this paper,McGuire's analytical formulation is extended,which is just suitable for the former,so that a more general analytical result considering the above two cases can be obtained and the calculation precision and efficiency can be improved accordingly.
出处
《地震工程与工程振动》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第1期19-29,共11页
Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics
基金
地震科学联合基金
