小麦白粉病发生气象条件和气象预报研究进展

Meteorological Factors and its Forecast on Wheat Powdery Mildew Occurrence in China

基于已有成果,采用影响事实检测法,系统分析和汇总气象条件对小麦白粉病影响的规律,对气象因子在国内小麦白粉病预报中的应用进行综述,指出当前研究存在的问题,并对未来发展进行展望。已有研究表明,夏季气温偏低对白粉病病菌的越夏有利;秋冬季及早春气温偏高或阴雨日偏多利于病情发展,但雨水过多且集中则不利于病害发展;冬小麦生长中后期高温干旱会抑制病情发展;日照少则利于白粉病流行;病菌借助大气环流完成异地传播。关于气象因子对小麦白粉病影响的研究多基于田间观测,通过与气象资料对比分析,建立小麦白粉病发生发展与各气象因子及因子组合间的定量关系。有关小麦白粉病的气象预报分定性和定量两大类:定性预报一般采用指标预测法;定量预报以数理统计方法应用为多,人工神经网络法、模糊数学法和灰色系统理论也有应用。目前国内小麦白粉病预报研究中尚存在数据资料有限、指标选择不当、模拟方法仅限于黑箱和灰箱模型、研究结果地域性强、实用性较差等问题。机理模型的研究极少,未来亟待开展。

The impact of meteorological factors to wheat powdery mildew was analyzed based on the previous researches,by using of the method of detecting facts.Application of meteorological factors to wheat powdery mildew forecast was summarized,and problems in current research were pointed out and future research trend was suggested.Previous researches showed that low summer temperature was conducive to powdery mildew survival.Higher temperature and more precipitation in autumn,winter and early spring were conducive to the occurrence and development of powdery mildew.But overmuch rainfall was not conducive to the development of powdery mildew.High temperature over 25℃ and drought could inhibit disease development.Low sunshine was conducive to the development of powdery mildew too.Gone with atmospheric circulation,powdery mildew achieves remote propagation.Most above researches were based on field observation,and compared with meteorological data.There were few researches about quantitative relationship between wheat powdery mildew occurrence and development and meteorological factor and factor combination.The meteorological forecast of wheat powdery mildew could be classified qualitative forecast and quantitative forecast.Qualitative forecast generally used the index forecasting method.Quantitative prediction mostly used mathematical statistics method.Artificial neural network,fuzzy mathematics method and the grey system theory were used in some researches too.The limitation of data,improper selection of index,simulation methods limited to black and grey box model,results of regional and poor practicability were the main problems in wheat powdery mildew forecast.Mechanism model was almost blank but needed in the future.