居民出行方式选择与客运交通低碳化研究

Research on Residents Travel Choice and Low-carbon Transport

本文从居民出行方式选择的基本行为特征出发,将居民出行总成本分为出行货币成本、出行时间厌恶成本、出行时间机会成本三部分,采用经济学局部均衡比较静态分析方法,按照出行成本最小化原则设定目标函数,并引入城市空间规模、收入水平、交通政策、交通状况等外生变量,分析了居民出行方式选择的内生决定与外生影响机制及其对居民出行碳排放水平的影响,并得出结论:城市空间规模扩展、居民收入水平提高以及仅通过增加道路资源供给解决道路拥堵问题的交通政策,都将促使居民选择以个体机动化交通方式(主要指私人小汽车)为主的出行方式组合,并提高居民出行的碳排放水平;公交票价优惠、缩短居民公交出行时间等"公交优先"的交通与城市空间发展措施有利于促使居民选择以公共交通方式为主的出行方式组合,进而降低居民出行的碳排放水平,实现客运交通低碳化发展,但这些政策措施仍需配合舒适性、便捷性等公交服务水平的提高才能更好地发挥作用。

Starting from the basic behavioral characteristics of the residents travel mode choice, residents travel costs are divided into the cost of money, aversion cost of travel time, the opportunity cost of travel time in this paper. In accordance with the principle of the minimization of residents travel costs, exogenous variables including urban space scale, income, transport policy and traffic conditions are introduced to analyze the influence of them on residents travel choice behavior and the level of carbon emissions through the partial equilibrium comparative static analysis methods. And tile paper concluded that due to the expansion of urban space and the increase of income levels, residents would choose the combination of travel modes based on individual traffic （mainly refer to private cars ）, and the level of carbon emissions would increase; the way to solve traffic congestion problems only by increasing the supply of road resources had the same effects. Public transport priority policy and urban space optimization policy would help encourage residents to choose the combination of travel modes based on public traffic and reduce their carbon emissions, and to play a better role the improvement of public transport services should be complied with.