产业-就业结构变动与中国城市化发展趋势

Impact of the Change in Industrial and Employment Structure on Urbanization in China: An Empirical Analysis Based on the VEC Model

本文从宏观和动态的角度对1978年改革以来我国经济系统转型过程中,产业-就业结构变动、升级与人口城市化趋势之间的关联性作实证性分析。时间序列分析结果显示,经济系统内存在产业结构变动→就业结构变动→城市化率的变动的单向因果关系。进一步以城市化率、一二三次产业产值和就业比重为系统内生变量所作的"向量误差修正模型(VEC模型)"分析结果显示:产业-就业结构变动对城市化有较强的短期驱动力,其中,第三产业就业变动的驱动最为强劲;但从长期看,产业-就业结构变动对城市化驱动力逐渐弱化,即按既有的结构变动模式将很难对城市化产生更强劲的推动作用。本研究结果之政策含义是:①惟有通过新的产业-就业结构升级才能对城市化产生更大的驱动力;②欲实现新的结构升级须着力解决第二产业-就业结构偏离度过大的问题;③通过全方位的经济和社会改革破解二元结构的体制机制,方能进一步缩小结构偏离度,推动未来城市化的健康、持续发展。

This paper, based on a macro view, dynamically focuses on analyzing the relevance between the upgrade of industrial ＆ employment structure and the urbanization trend, in the process of transformation of China＇ s economic system since 1978. A time sequence analysis shows that in this economic system there is a one-way causality： the change of industrial structure leads to the change of employment structure, which leads to the change of urbanization rate. Using the ＂Vector Error Correction Model （VEC Model） ＂, in which the urbanization rate, output of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and employment proportion have been taken as endogenous variables, the analytic result shows that the changes of industrial and employment structure are strong short-term driving forces on urbanization, among which the change of the third industry is the strongest; however, in long term this driving force weakens gradually, which means under the existing change pattern it will be difficult to generate more driving force on urbanization. The policy side of implications of this study are： a） Only through upgrading the industrial ＆ employment structure can there be a greater driving force on urbanization, b） To upgrade, efforts must be made to solve the issue that the employment structure of the second industry bears a large deviation, c ） Implementing Omni-directional economical and social reform to crack the mechanism of dual social structure. In this case, the deviation can be narrowed and it will boost China＇s healthy and sustainable urbanization development.