企业投资食品可追溯体系的决策意愿与影响因素研究

Decisions' Willingness and Key Factors Which Is Invested in Food Traceability System by Enterprises

本文以企业食品可追溯体系投资行为为案例,构建了基于隐马尔科夫模型(HMM)的决策意愿模型。该模型以企业食品可追溯体系投资决策意愿作为模型的状态,以企业所有特征因素作为观测符号,采用Baum-Welch算法确定模型参数,Viterbi算法解码并确定最优路径。仿真结果表明,本文所构建的企业食品可追溯体系投资决策意愿模型具有有效性,企业食品可追溯体系投资决策是决策主体基于自身与环境特征而作出的一个连续动态且智能、复杂的过程,而并非是简单的是与否两种状态。研究结论显示,食品生产者投资决策行为的改变主要是从食品可追溯体系中获得了经济收益,预期收益是影响企业投资决策最重要的因素之一,而市场对可追溯食品的需求、政府为确保食品安全出台的支持政策,可降低可追溯食品的生产成本,有利于增加企业收益,对影响企业投资食品可追溯体系的决策意愿具有重要的作用。

In this paper, we take the food enterprises＇ investment in food traceability system＇s for the case, and build model of decision willingness based on HMM （Hidden Markov Model, HMM）. This model sets the food enterprises＇ investment decision willingness in food traceability system＇s as the state of the model, the enterprises＇ all characteristics as the observation, and determines the model parameters by Baum-Welch algorithm, the optimal path by Viterbi decoding algorithm. The simulation result shows that the model is effective, and food enterprises made the investment decision only based on the characteristics of itself and environment. It＇s a continuously dynamic and intelligent, complex process, rather than a simple two-state of ＂yes＂ or ＂no＂. Our research results show that the change of food enterprises＇ investment behavior is because they take income from food traceability system. The expectance for income is one of the main factors which affect food enterprises＇ investment decision. The market demand for traceable food and government policy about food safety can reduce food enterprises＇ cost and increase their income and that have important function in promoting food enterprises to invest food traceability system.