机遇与桎梏:变革时代的俄罗斯亚太战略

Opportunities and Constraints: Russian Asia-Pacific Strategy in an Era of Changes

随着全球权力格局的变迁和亚太力量结构的调整,俄罗斯政治精英和专家学者对于亚太战略给予了越来越多的重视。当前俄罗斯的亚太战略可以分为三个方面:一是通过西伯利亚和远东开发计划加速东部地区的发展,寻求参与亚太经济进程;二是加大在远东地区的军事投入,努力扩大在亚太地区的军事存在;三是以主动姿态参与亚太地区安全治理结构的设计,并积极加强与亚太主要国家的外交互动。但是,俄亚太战略面临着许多现实因素的制约,尤其是俄国内传统的欧洲国家身份定位仍制约着俄精英和民众建立对亚太地区的心理认同。未来俄亚太战略对中俄关系将可能产生两方面的影响,一方面是俄加大对亚太地区事务的参与力度将可能拓展中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系的深度和广度,为两国的经济发展和地区开发带来机遇;但另一方面,基于俄国家利益制定的亚太战略,也将可能在某种程度上影响到中国在亚太地区的战略利益。

With changes in global power configuration and adjustment of Asia-Pacific power structures, Russian political elites and experts increasingly pay more attention to its Asia-Pacific strategy. Currently, Russian Asia-Pacific strategy can be divided into three aspects： first, seeking participation in Asia-Pacific economic process through accelerating development in the Eastem area with plans for Siberian and the Far East; second, increasing its military investment in the Far East, making all efforts to expand its military presence in the Asia-Pacific; third, actively participating in the design of Asia-Pacific regional architecture of security governance, and energetically promoting its diplomatic interaction with major Asia-Pacific countries. However, Russia＇s Asia-Pacific strategy is confronted with many realistic constraints, particularly its traditional position as a European country domestically still restricts psychological identification of its elites and folks towards the Asia-Pacific region Future Russian Asia-Pacific strategy will have two effects, on one hand, Russia＇s more participation in Asia-Pacific affairs may promote Sino-Russian overall strategic coordination partnership to a new level, bringing opportunities for both countries＇ economic and regional development, and on the other hand, the Asia-Pacific strategy, based on Russian national interests, may also, to certain extent, influence China＇s strategic interest in Asia-Pacific.