合作社风险影响与应对程度认知研究

Research of the Cooperatives Perception for Risk Impact and Response Degree

通过青海马铃薯主产区合作社的实地调查,对不确定环境下,合作社可能面临的16项风险因素进行实证分析。重点对合作社风险影响程度与应对程度的认知进行研究,其中自然灾害风险对合作社的影响程度最高,均值达7.47;生产资料供给不确定性、国家与政府政策变动、农产品价格波动以及农产品质量安全等风险的影响程度均较高,均值分别为6.67、6.60、6.53、6.27。银行贷款利率变动风险的应对程度最低,均值为3;自然灾害、国家政府政策变动、农产品价格波动等风险的应对程度也较低,均值分别为3.07、3.30、5.33。自然灾害风险、国家与政府政策变动风险、农产品价格波动风险影响程度高、应对程度低,这3项风险是合作社面临的主要风险因素。利用矩阵分析4类风险,找出对合作社影响程度高、应对程度低的关键风险因素,定位合作社风险应对的薄弱环节:政策风险和生产风险的影响程度高、应对程度低;如果不考虑政府政策风险与自然风险等不可抗风险,市场风险的影响程度较高、应对程度较低。

Through field survey of the main potato producing areas in Qinghai cooperatives, we analyzed cooperatives which could face 16 risk factors under uncertain environment. Putting emphasis on perception of the risk impact on cooperatives and the degree which responded to： the risk of natural disasters had the highest degree, with 7.47 mean score; input supply uncertainty, government policy changes, agricultural prices fluctuations, and the quality and safety of agricultural products also had high impact degrees, which were respectively 6.67, 6.60, 6.53, 6.27. The risk of interest changes was most difficult to cope with, mean score of 3. Natural disasters risk, government policy changes risk, and agricultural products prices wave risk were also sticky to counter, the scores were low too, respectively 3.07, 3.30, 5.33. These three risks all had high impact degree on cooperatives and low degree to deal with, which were main risks for cooperatives. Cross analysis was made in 4 classes risks for finding key risk factors and location weak segments. Policy risk and production risk both had high impact degree on cooperatives and low degree to counter against. However, excluding force majeure, market risks were most important factor and weak point.