安徽省淮北平原夏玉米主要生育时期旱涝指标与影响评估

The Climate Index and Assessment about Drought and Flood in Maize’s Key Growth Stage in Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province

为给淮北平原夏玉米高产稳产和防灾减灾以及保险理赔等工作提供参考依据,利用1961—2010年安徽省淮北平原夏玉米生育期间降水资料,采用积分回归分析方法确定了逐旬降水量对夏玉米的增产或减产效应及其影响的关键时段,同时采取降水概率≤20%与≥80%分位数法设计了夏玉米不同生育时段及其全生育期间旱与涝的气候指标,统计分析了夏玉米旱与涝灾的区域分布和灾损率及其风险分布特征。结果表明:淮北平原夏玉米生育期间逐旬降水量的负效应多于正效应,抽雄—乳熟期间降水对夏玉米产量影响显著,期间发生旱或涝灾的减产率分别为12.6%和16.3%。淮北平原夏玉米播种—出苗、苗期—拔节、拔节—抽雄、抽雄—成熟和全生育期旱灾与涝灾的气候指标分别是各自时段内的降水总量≤17.0、≤50.0、≤95.0、≤110.0、≤370.0mm和≥95.0、≥235.0、≥265.0、≥280.0、≥740.0mm。淮北平原夏玉米生育期间涝灾多于旱灾,且旱灾与涝灾风险分别呈经向和纬向分布,全生育期旱灾与涝灾的气象相对减产率分别为-22.4%和-28.9%,其他生育时段旱与涝灾的气象相对减产率在-8%～-16%之间。

To provide the scientific basis for inducting the corn production and insurance claims in Huaibei Plain, based on the precipitation data during summer maize＇ s growth season in Huaibei Plain from 1961 to 2010, this paper disclosed the output effect of ten-days rainfall to maize yield and its key period of time by means of integral regression method, and obtained the climate index about drought and flood in different growth stages as well as the whole period by percentile method of precipitation probability less than 20% and more than 80%, meanwhile, this paper also analyzed the area distribution of drought and flood as well as the maize yield loss and its risk distribution. The results showed that, the ten-days rainfall had more negative effect than positive effect during summer maize＇ s growth season in Huaibei Plain, the precipitation from tassel appearance to milky of maize had significant effect on maize＇ s yield, when the drought and flood could cause yield reduction of 12.6% and 16.3% respectively. In Huaibei Plain, the climate index about drought and flood in different corn stages appearance-maturity was ≤17.0, ≤50.0, （sowing-seeding s stage and the who ≤ 95.0, ≤ 110.0, tage, seeding-jointing stage, jointing-tassel appearance stage, tassel le period） were that, the total rainfall during the corresponding stage ≤370.0 mm and ≥95.0,≥235.0, ≥265.0, 3280.0, ≥740.0 mmrespectively. There was more flood than drought during maize＇ s growth season xn tluaxDel tiara, ana me ns had a warp and weft distribution, the relative reduction rate caused by drought and flood in maize＇ s whole growth stage was-22.4% and-28.9% respectively, and in other stages the relative reduction rate was between -8% and - 16%.