装备维修合同商保障风险识别与评估研究

Research on Risk Identify and Assessment of Equipment Maintenance Contractor Support

从风险识别、风险评估2个方面提出了开展装备维修合同商保障风险管理研究的思路。依据委托代理理论和交易成本理论,对合同商保障风险成因进行了理论分析。按照与合同商相关的源头风险、与军方相关的运作风险以及二者之间的协作风险的分类,识别了风险要素,并构建了装备维修合同商保障风险的贝叶斯网络图。结合示例,对贝叶斯网络推理算法在合同商保障风险推理过程中应用进行了数据验证,比较了不同根节点事件的敏感性,旨在为有效控制风险提供借鉴。

This paper puts forward research thought of equipment maintenance contractor support risks from risk identify and assessment. Firstly, we analyze the reason of contractor support risks based on theories of transaction cost and principal-agent. Risk factors are identified through three as- pects, including headstream risks from contractor, function risks from military, and collaboration risks from both concerned parties. Secondly, the Bayesian networks diagram of equipment mainte- nance contractor support risks is constructed. Through an example, it is validated the reasoning process of equipment maintenance contractor support risks using Bayesian networks rational arithme- tic. In order to effectively prevent risks from occurring, the different sensitivity of node factors which could trigger the final contractor support risk are analyzed.