基于信息扩散技术的黑龙江省农业旱灾风险分析

Agriculture Drought Risk Analysis Based on Information Diffusion Technique in Heilongjiang Province

基于优化利用不完备信息进行风险评估的信息扩散技术,根据黑龙江省2001～2011年旱灾灾情数据,建立灾害样本与相应论域的模糊关系,根据扩散后的样本信息估计了黑龙江省因旱受灾率、因旱成灾率、因旱绝收率的概率分布,定量分析旱灾风险。分析结果表明,黑龙江省因旱受灾率在10%左右的几率最大,因旱成灾率在6%左右的几率最大;黑龙江省平均每1.2年发生一次受灾面积超过10%的旱灾,平均每2年发生一次受灾面积超过25%的旱灾,平均每5年发生一次受灾面积超过45%的旱灾,平均每10.3年发生一次受灾面积超过55%的旱灾,平均每54年发生一次受灾面积超过70%的旱灾;平均每1.7年发生一次成灾面积超过10%的旱灾,平均每6.5年发生一次成灾面积超过25%的旱灾,平均每13.6年发生一次成灾面积超过30%的旱灾,平均每40.2年发生一次成灾面积超过35%的旱灾。

Due to incomplete drought related information, information diffusion technique is introduced to make drought risk analysis in Heilongjiang province. Based on the historical drought disaster data during 2001-2011, the fuzzy relationship of the sample and its relevant domain is established, thus the probability distribution of the drought disaster index are estimated quantitatively by diffusing the sample information. The results show that the drought affected rate at 10% is of the largest probability in Heilongjiang, while the drought damaged rate at 6% is of the largest probability. In Heilongjiang province, drought affected area over 10% occurs once every 1.2a, over 25% occurs once every 2a, over 45% occurs once every 5a, over 55% occurs once every 10.3a, over 70% occurs once every 54a. Drought damaged area over 10% occurs once every 1.7a, over 25% occurs once every 6.5a, over 30% occurs once every 13.6a, over 35% occurs once every 40.2a.