基于层次分析法的林业火险评估与预报研究

Forestry Fire Risk Assessment and Prediction Research Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

应用层次分析法的相关理论,构建了林业火险评估与预报层次结构模型,建立了定量指标体系和定性指标体系。通过判断矩阵确定各层次元素的重要程度,由隶属函数计算出隶属度,得到林业火险评估结论和火险预报。并以山东省济宁市为例,对该层次分析方法进行检验,得到结果与实际情况相符。

Using the theory of the Analytic Hierarchy Process,a forest fire risk assessment and forecast of hierarchical structure model was built,the quantitative index system and qualitative indicators system were established.According to the judgment of matrix,the importance of all levels of elements were found.The membership rate was calculated through membership functions.The conclusions of the forest fire risk assessment and fire risk forecast had been gotten.Take Jining City of Shandong Province for example,after inspection of the Analytic Hierarchy Process,the results was consistent with the realities.