经济周期、行业周期性与盈余管理程度——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

Business Cycles, Cyclical Industries and Magnitude of Earnings Management: An Empirical Evidence from China’s Listed Companies

本文研究了企业在经济周期不同阶段盈余管理程度是否存在差异,以及周期性和非周期性行业企业盈余管理程度是否存在差异。本文通过检验我国A股上市公司在2000-2011年间经济周期收缩期和扩张期周期性与非周期性行业公司可操控性应计利润绝对值的差异,发现,周期性行业公司盈余管理程度总体上大于非周期性行业;盈余管理程度在经济收缩期大于扩张期,但这种差异主要是由周期性行业公司导致的:非周期性行业公司的盈余管理程度在经济收缩期与经济扩张期并无显著差异,而周期性行业公司的盈余管理程度在经济收缩期显著大于经济扩张期。本文的检验结果表明,在研究盈余管理时,应考虑控制周期性行业与非周期性行业之间,以及经济周期不同阶段的差别。

This article examines whether the magnitude of earnings management of firms between different stages of business cycle is different, and whether the magnitude of earnings management of firms between cyclical and non-cyclical industries is different. We assume that the magnitude of earnings management is higher during contraction period than during expansion period and for cyclical firms than for non- cyclical firms. Based on prior literature, we classify the China＇s macro economy into contraction period and expansion period. Following the cyclical and non-cyclical industry classification method released by China Securities Index Co., LTD and Shanghai Stock Exchange in CSI 300 Cyclical Industry Index and CSI 300 non-Cyclical Industry Methodology and SSE Cyclical Industry 50 and SSE non-Cyclical Industry 100 index Methodology, we classify the listed firms into cyclical and non-cyclical industries. We use dummy variables to measure whether the macro economy is during contraction or expansion period, and a firm is cyclical or non-cyclical. In addition, we use absolute value of discretionary accruals to measure the magnitude of earnings management, and use Modified Jones Model to get the discretionary accruals. By testing the difference of magnitude of absolute value of discretionary accruals of China＇s A-share listed firms between cyclical and non-cyclical industries, and between economic contraction period and expansion period from Year 2000 to Year 2011, we find that, compared with non-cyclical industries, the magnitude of earnings management of cyclical industries is higher. In addition, the magnitude of earnings management is higher during economic contraction period than during expansion period. But this difference is mainly caused by cy- clical industries： the difference is insignificantly different from zero for non-cyclical industries but significantly positive for cyclical ones. The testing results show the necessity of controlling for the difference between cyclical and non-cyclical industries, as well as the different stages of business cycle in the study on earnings management.