中国水利发展阶段划分:理论框架与评判

Division of China Water Conservancy Development Stages:Theoretical Framework and Evaluation

水利对于中国经济社会可持续发展的重要性日益凸显。深入分析国情和水情的演变,合理划分水利发展阶段,对于水利发展战略选择具有重要参考价值。关于水利发展阶段划分的理论和方法,在学术研究上尚是一个较新的课题。论文提出了一套基于全面认识水利与生态环境-社会经济系统的互动关系,分析水利发展与社会经济生态系统间供求关系的演变趋势,进而评判水利发展阶段性特征的理论框架。以此为基础,提出了基于水利发展供求关系分析的水利发展阶段划分方法:通过考察水利发展供求关系演变,结合水生态环境变迁趋势,选取代表性的节点年份,定量指标分析和经验分析相结合地确定水利发展阶段分期。通过上述理论和方法,将百年中国水利发展(1949年至2050年)划分为7个阶段。

Water conservancy plays a greater role in China＇ s sustainable development. A thor ough analysis of China＇ s evolvement of national condition and water regime, together with a rea sonable division of water conservancy development stages keeps us well informed about the refer ence value to the strategic choice of water conservancy development. The theory and methodology of the division of water conservancy development stages is a relatively new subject in academic re search. This paper puts forward a set of theoretical framework based on a comprehensive under standing of interactive relationship between the water conservancy development and ecoenviron ment socioeconomic system, analyzes its supplydemand＇ s evolution tendency, and then evalu ates the stage features of water conservancy development. Based on this, it puts forward the meth odology of stage division of water conservancy development： investigate the supply and demand of water conservancy development evolution, integrating with the ecological environment changing trend and selecting some representative years as the node, to get the division of water conservancy development stages judged by quantitative index analysis and empirical analysis. According to the above theory and method, this paper divides China＇ s centennial water conservancy development （1949 2050） into seven main phases.