基于书龄分析的图书剔旧实证研究

An Empirical Study of Book Weeding Based on the Book Age

为精准获取各类图书的剔旧书龄,使剔旧工作更为科学,文章通过对西南大学图书馆流通图书五年借阅记录进行统计分析,构建由生长曲线和边际收益递减两部分组成的计算出的G类、K类、T(不含TP)类、TP类图书平均借阅次数和书龄之间的回归模型。生长曲线描述图书平均借阅次数随书龄增长逐年增加的知识传播过程,边际收益递减描述图书平均借阅次数随书龄增长逐年降低的老化过程。依据该模型获取的平均借阅次数预测值与实际值有高度的一致性。此外,计算出若满足80%的读者借阅量,G类书龄大于16、K类大于17、T(不含TP)类大于15、TP类大于14可进行剔旧处理。

Weeding according to the ages of books of various kinds could be more scientific. With a statistical analysis of book circulation records in five years in the library of Southwest University, a regression model of the relation between average borrowing frequency and book age in the category G, K and T was built, which consists of growth curve and diminishing marginal returns. Growth curve depicts the process of knowledge dissemination, during which the average borrowing frequency increases with age; diminishing marginal returns represents the book aging process showing the decrease of average borrowing frequency as the book ages. According to the model, the predicted average borrowing frequency of books in category G, K and T is highly in consistence with the real one. Besides, in order to reach a book circulation rate of 80%, the weeding age is 16 for category G, 17 for category K, 14 for category TP and 15 for the rest category T