山区公路施工安全评价中聚类分析的应用研究

Applied Studies on Cluster Analysis of Risk Elements Level in the Construction of Mountainous Highway

依据山区公路施工的特点,结合依托工程构建了具有23个指标的风险因素安全评价指标体系,并设定了5个等级的风险评价集.采用专家调研问卷的方式,针对风险评价集对风险指标因素对进行打分,在此基础上采用模糊ISODATA聚类分析方法对风险因素进行模糊聚类,揭示其与风险评价级间的关系.结果表明:在所研究范围内,山区公路施工中的危险因素倾向于较高风险、一般风险和可忽略危险这3类风险级别,其中属于一般风险的风险因素约占总量的65.2%,而属于较高风险和可忽略风险的风险因素则各占17.4%;模糊ISODATA方法可以有效地解决山区公路施工中风险因素指标评价问题,能准确地从全局和总体上提供分类指导依据.

Based on the characteristics of the construction of mountainous highway, an indictor system of e- valuation that contains 23 risk elements has been built up, and a risk evaluation set of 5 levels has also been provided. Questionnaires have been distributed to 30 experts to obtain their comments on risk level of 23 risk elements. Cluster analysis of ISODATA has been adopted to classify the risk elements and to reveal their relationships with the risk evaluation set. Some results show that the risk elements tend to belong to the level of relative high risk, general risk and negligible risk in the present research. The risk elements of general risk account for about 65.2 %, when the risk elements of relative high risk and negligible risk account for 17.4% respectively. The cluster analysis of ISODATA has good performance in the risk evaluation on the risk elements in mountainous highway construction. It can provide guidance for the overall classification.