澜沧、耿马地震前的复发周期时空扫描

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL SCANNING OF THE EARTHQUAKERECURRENCE INTERVAL BEFORE THELANCANG-GENGMA EARTHQUAKE

继文献〔1〕和①,本文作者以1988年11月6日云南省澜沧、耿马地区发生的7.6、7.2级地震为例,采用复发周期时空扫描的方法、对地震预报中短期预报的方法进行了追踪研究。结果表明大震前的异常是清楚的。异常分为两个阶段:第一阶段是外围异常阶段,震前逐步形成外围异常、形如围空、然后是外围异常逐步消失;第二阶段为极震区附近异常的逐步增强、扩大与稳定直至发震。看来采用复发周期时空扫描的方法是可以预报某些强震的。

Following the publications of papers respectively listed in References [1] and ①, the author undertook studies to keep track of the methods used in mid- and short-term earthquake predictions by citing Lancang-Gcngma, Yunnan earthquakes respectively of M7.6 and M7.2 occurred Nov. 6, 1988 and using the temporal-spatial scanning of the recurrence intervals. Result of the study shows that strong earthquake occurrences are preceeded by unumbiguous anomalies. The anomalies can generally be classified into 2 episodes. 1) The 1st episode is characterized by anomalies in the area in the neighborhood of the forthcoming epicenter. The peripheral anomalies such as seismic gaps form gradually and then disappear also gradually. 2) The 2nd episode features the gradual intensification and expansion of the peripheral anomalies surrounding the forthcoming meizoseismal region followed by stabilization of such anomalies till the occurrence of the earthquake. It is thus suggestive that the temporal-spatial scanning of the earthquake recurrence interval might serve as a promising method for predicting some of the strong shocks.