矿井井架基础沉降预测中的Asaoka法和灰色模型

Asaoka method and grey model prediction in mine derrick settlement

通过对Asaoka法和灰色模型的基本原理及其选取原则进行简介,并结合对某矿区矿井井架的多期观测,分别采用Asaoka法和灰色模型对实测数据进行分析进而预测,结果证明2种方法在短期内的预测结果相同,预测精度较高,对煤矿的实际生产具有重要意义,但2种方法都无法对下沉的机理做出科学合理的解释,同时其长期预测精度尚待进一步验证.

Based on the basic principles and the selected principle of Asaoka method and Grey Model, and by combining with the multi - phase observations of a mine derrick, this paper uses the Asaoka method and the Grey Model to analyze and predict the measured data. Results prove that the two methods are the same in a short term prediction and have a higher prediction accuracy, which have a far - reaching significance to the actual production of a coal mine. But both methods are unable to make a scientific and reasonable explanation to sinking mechanism, and its accuracy of long -term forecasting needs to be further verified.