城镇化与新型工业化的动态耦合研究——基于武汉与成都的实证分析

Dynamic Coupling Study of Urbanization and New Industrialization——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Wuhan and Chengdu

对城镇化与工业化发展关系的正确认识已经成为我们制定经济发展战略、引导经济持续稳定发展的必要前提。为此,本文构建了城镇化与新型工业化动态耦合模型,建立多指标评价系统,更多引入城镇化和工业化发展的"质量"指标,运用因子分析等方法,对城镇化与新型工业化的发展关系进行动态耦合分析。实证结果表明,成都在过去的10年里,城市复合系统呈现趋于协调的发展态势;武汉的城镇化与工业化耦合发展变动较大,工业化发展速率远远大于城镇化发展速率,且这种差距有增大的趋势;通过2个城市的产业结构比较发现,第三产业尤其是服务业的发展与城镇化与工业化协调发展质量密切相关。

The correct cognition of the relationship between urbanization and industrialization has become a necessary prerequisite for the formulation of the economic development strategy and the guidance of the sustainable and stable development of the economy.Therefore,the dynamic coupled model and the multi-index evaluation system are built in this paper to analyze the dynamic coupling relationship between urbanization and new industrialization.More＂quality＂indicators of the development are introduced into this evaluation system and the Factor Analysis method is applied in the procedure of the analysis.The empirical results show that the city of Chengdu complex system tends to coordinated development trend in the past decade;To Wuhan,the development of urbanization and industrialization had a large fluctuation in the past decade,and the rate of industrialization development was far greater than the rate of urbanization development in recent years.It is worth noting that the gap between the speeds of these developments is intensifying.Comparison of the industrial structure of the two cities shows that the tertiary industry,especially the development of the service sector,is closely related to the coordinated development between urbanization and new industrialization.