试析美国学界新“弃台论”思潮及其面临的批评

On New Thought of "Abandoned Taiwan Theory" by the American Academic Circle and its Criticism

中美全球战略关系与两岸关系的提升和发展深刻地影响着美国学界关于台湾问题的政策研究。近年来,包括智库在内的美国学界出现了一股声势不小的所谓新"弃台论"思潮,虽然这在某种程度上契合了美国政府对华政策的调整,但新"弃台论"思潮遭到了美国传统亲台和保守派学者们的口诛笔伐。从当前美国学界出现的这些新的研究动向中我们可以观察到美国对台政策的走向及趋势,尽管这些驱动不足以改变美国政府对台政策的实质性变化,但探讨并运用好这些新的舆论导向对我们具有重要意义。

The development of the Sino-US global strategic relationship and the Cross-Strait relations has made a profound impact on the study of Taiwan Question by the American academic circle. There appears a so called thought of ＂Abandoned Taiwan Theory＂ in recent years in the American academia, including the American think-tank ,which, to a certain extent, corresponds to the policy adjustment of the American government towards China. However,the new thought has been subjected to severe criti- cism and condemnation by the traditional American pro-Taiwan and conservative scholars both in speech and in writing. On the other hand, we can also observe the trend of U. S. policy toward Taiwan from the emergency of these new research trends in the American academia, which, though too weak to change the American government＇s policy towards Taiwan, prove to be of great significance to us if they are well studied and used.