发达国家主权债务削减方式的未来选择

On Options of Future Sovereign Debt Reduction Mode for the Developed Countries

发达国家正面临严重债务问题,明确其未来的削减方式十分重要,但相关研究较少。本文在阐述债务削减方式、机制及其搭配基础上,对发达国家未来债务削减方式的选择进行了分析。我们认为:未来美国将采用金融抑制和适度通货膨胀相结合的方式来削减债务;日本金融抑制空间有限,未来可能寻求更宽松的货币政策来刺激通胀,达到削减债务与走出通缩的双重目的;鉴于政治因素,以及单一通胀目标制等原因,通胀在欧元区未来债务削减中的贡献应该小于美国和日本,德法等国将更多依靠财政紧缩和金融抑制来削减债务,"PIIGS五国"则以债务违约和金融抑制为主。

The developed countries are facing serious debt problems.It is of vital importance to clarify the future debt reduction mode.However,few researches are made.On the elaboration of the methods,the mechanisms and their collocation of the debt reduction,the thesis analyzes the future options of debt reduction of the developed countries.The thesis holds that the United States could take the way of financial repression combined with moderate inflation in the future to reduce debt while Japan may adopt easier monetary policy to stimulate inflation and achieve the dual purposes of reducing debt and ending deflation given that financial repression of Japan is limited.In view of political factors as well as single inflation targeting,inflation could play less role in the Euro zone than that in the United States and Japan.Germany and France and other countries could rely more on fiscal austerity and financial repression while 'PIIGS Five' may reduce debts mainly via debt default and financial repression.