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吉林省碳排放影响因素分析及与经济增长的脱钩研究 被引量:6

The study on the impact factors of carbon emissions and decoupling with economic growth of Jilin Province
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摘要 定量研究省域层面各因素对碳排放的影响程度,以及分析经济增长与碳排放的关系,是完成"十二五"和2020年碳强度下降指标的关键所在.以吉林省为例,运用STIRPAT随机模型,采用有偏估计岭回归方法对人口、经济、技术等因素对碳排放的影响程度进行了模拟,并检验了碳排放与经济增长是否存在环境库兹涅茨曲线关系;同时,引入脱钩指数法对碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系进行了分析.结果表明:经济增长对碳排放的相对影响程度较大,是碳排放的主要影响因素;经STIRPAT模型检验,经济增长和碳排放之间未出现环境库兹涅茨曲线关系;经济增长与碳排放之间处于相对脱钩状态,这也从另外一方面验证了目前两者之间不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线的假说. The quantitative study of the factors on carbon emissions at the provincial level and analysis of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions are the key of completing the reducing carbon intensity indicators of "Twelfth Five-Year" and 2020.In this paper,making Jilin Province as the research area,we simulate the impact of the demographic,economic,technological and other factors on carbon emissions using the unbiased estimate of the ridge regression with STIRPAT stochastic model,verify the environmental Kuznets curve relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth,and analyze decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth by introducing decoupling index.The results show that:the economic growth is the relatively larger impact on carbon emissions,which is the main influencing factor of carbon emissions.Environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions does not appear through inspecting by STIRPAT model.The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions is in a state of relative decoupling,which,from the other hand,also verify that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis does not currently exist between them.
出处 《东北师大学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2013年第2期134-138,共5页 Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金 吉林省科技发展计划项目(20110638 20120606) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70941036) 吉林省发改委计划项目
关键词 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 岭回归 脱钩指数 carbon emissions STIRPAT model ridge regression decoupling index
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