预期城乡收入差距及其对我国农村劳动力转移的影响

Expected Rural-Urban Income Gap and the Impact on Chinese Rural Labor Force Immigration

本文是在当前"用工荒"的社会背景下,利用托达罗模型,在比较优势的框架下,采用CHNS(中国健康营养调查)的微观数据,分析了我国农村劳动力转移的影响因素。具有内生选择的转换模型表明:预期城乡收入差距是影响我国劳动力转移的最重要的因素;劳动力转移增加了农村劳动力的预期收入,从而在一定程度上缓解了城乡收入差距;调查的我国农村劳动力数据存在自选择问题,因此在分析转移劳动力收入时应该考虑自选择的影响;教育是影响我国农村劳动力收入的重要因素。

This paper analyses the factors of Chinese labor migration based on the Todaro mode and the framework of comparative advantage analysis in the social context of the current labor shortage using micro survey data of CHNS. Conclusions that come from the switching regression model with endogenous switching are as follows. Expected income gap is the most important factor that effects Chinese rural-urban labor immigration. Labor immigration increases the income of rural labor force. Furthermore, it narrows the income gap between the urban and the rural in a certain extent. There is self-selection problem in the survey data of Chinese rural labor force, so the influence of self-selection should be one of factors considered in discussion the income of immigrated labor. Education is an important factor which impacts the income of Chinese rural labor force.