贸易、制度变迁与中国的经济增长

Trade,Institutional Change and Economic Growth in China

本文讨论贸易和制度变迁对中国经济增长的影响,发现改革开放之前,贸易对中国经济增长的重要性并不明显;而改革开放之后,贸易对经济增长的作用变得十分突出和重要。贸易发展方面存在的巨大差异,是中国东中西部地区的经济发展差距在改革开放之后开始迅速扩大的重要原因之一。贸易还通过影响经济领域的制度变迁间接影响经济增长。对外贸易为中国的非国有经济发展提供了动力和机会,推动了中国经济的市场化进程。非国有经济的发展和经济资源配置的市场化等经济领域的制度变迁,是推动中国经济持续增长的重要力量。坚持市场化导向的经济改革,限制行政权力,走向成熟的法治市场经济,是未来中国经济发展的内在要求。

This paper examines the effects of trade and institutional change on economic growth in China. Our study shows that the effect of foreign trade on Chinese economic growth is not significant before 1978, while is very significant and important after 1978. The difference of trade development is the important reason that causes the divergence of regional economic development in China. The foreign trade promotes economic growth in China not only directly, but also indirectly by inducing institutional change. The foreign trade provides the motivation and opportunity for the Chinese non-state economic development, and promotes the process of marketization of the Chinese economy. The institutional changes in economic area, such as the development of non-state economy and the marketization of economic resource allocation, play an important role in Chinese economic sustained growth. Chinese economic development in the future requires insisting on the economic reform of market orientation, restricting the administrative power and being towards to the mature market economy with the rule of law.