泰山旅游对区域经济贡献水平的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Taishan Tourism's Contribution to Regional Economy

本文首先对泰山旅游相关统计数据,采用ADF单位根检验、协整分析和Granger因果检验等方法对泰安市旅游收入与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:旅游收入对GDP的长期弹性系数为0.69,旅游收入对区域经济发展具有极大的拉动效应.然后,利用2011年山东省17地市区旅游统计数据,采用聚类分析法,横向比较17地市区旅游发展水平.聚类结果表明:泰安地区的旅游发展水平处于省内中等或稍居前的水平,这说明泰安旅游整体发展水平还有待进一步提高.

Aecording to the statistical data of Taishan tourism provided by Tai＇an statistical yearbook, in the paper we first analyze the relationship between Taishan tourism and regional economic growth by means of ADF unit root hypothesis, co - integration and Granger causality test. The empirical results show that the long term elastic coeffieient is 0.69. Taishan tourism plays an important role in promoting the regional economic growth. Then we compare the tourism developing levels of 17 areas in Shandong province using cluster analy- sis, the results show that Taibaa tourism development level is in the medium level. Tai＇an tourism development level remains to be further improved.