养老基金发展与金融结构变迁——兼论我国金融改革和养老金改革协调互动的改革发展观

The Development of Pension Fund and the Transition of Financial Structure:an Outlook on Coordination and Interaction of Financial Reform and Pension System Reform

本文基于30个OECD国家1980-2011年数据的实证研究和对美英德日4个国家金融结构变迁和差异的系统考察表明:养老基金发展是金融结构变迁的主要动力,这是由于养老基金发展不仅可以分流银行储蓄、汇聚长期投资资金,而且可以促进机构投资者和资本市场的发展。其政策含义在于:从关注养老金改革的"财政发展效应"转向关注"金融发展效应",将我国当前的人口红利转变为养老金红利,利用养老金改革来推动我国金融改革和养老金融产业发展。

The results of empirical study and case study confirm our hypothesis that the development of pension fund is an important factor responsible for historical transition and international difference of financial structure. That’s because the development of pension fund can not only transform the old age saving into long term investment fund, but also promote the development of institutional investors and capital market. Hence, it means that we should speed up the reform of pension system and make good use of its financial development effect. Only through this way, can we transform demographic dividend into pension fund system bonus, and at the same time, promote financial reform and financial structure upgrading.