国际格局演变与中国周边安全

World Structure and China's Peripheral Security

有关国际格局的研究是分析国际形势与制定国际战略不可缺少的重要方面。国际格局演变与中国周边安全直接关系到中国能否确保可持续安全。作者指出,要从不同领域、不同范围,全面分析世界多极化格局的现状与未来。研究国际格局离不开时代背景的视角。引起国际格局重大变化的往往是"世界老二"的易位,中国可持续安全战略的重要任务是如何不成为二战后以来第三个失败的"世界老二"。改变未来国际格局的真正力量是新兴国家的群体崛起。中、美、俄、日四大国关系平均每十年发生一次格局性变化,国际战略格局演变通常与两年内发生的两件重大国际事件相关。国际格局力量对比严重失衡容易带来战争风险,非传统国际格局出现是决定未来"一超"与新兴大国关系的重要因素。未来国际格局的理想模式应该是:从目前的"一极多元"格局发展为多种力量在竞争中合作的"多元共存"格局,再和平过渡到以联合国为主体的"多元一体"格局,从而建立一个"后霸权"的国际体系。未来中美两国能否建立新型大国关系是一大关键。

Knowing the world structure is indispensable for the understanding of the international situations and the formation of a nation's global strategy.The major change of the world structure is often caused by the shift of position of the world's second biggest power.There were two of them in the near past,both unsuccessful.The real force leading to world structure change in the coming years would be the rising powers.In modern history,the overall relations among China,the United States,Russia and Japan turned into a completely new chapter in roughly every ten years.The world structure change usually occurred after two important events happened in around two years.A serious imbalance of the world power structure made the war more likely.The newly emerged non-traditional threats and the new world structure based on that would determine the relations between the United States,the only superpower,as one party and the rising powers as the other.The current world structure can be described as 'one superpower plus several big powers'.A better substitution would be a co-existence of a group of more or less equal powers,and an ideal one would be an integrated multi-power community with the United Nations as the core,which would be determined to certain degree by the future Sino-US relations.