基于能值理论的中国进出口贸易生态足迹实证研究

Empirical Study on Ecological Footprint of China's Import and Export Trade based on Emergy Theory

生态足迹可以用来定量地分析国际贸易的生态影响和可持续性.传统的生态足迹测算法具有参数不稳定性且忽略了各地区之间真正的生态比较优势,测算的结果误差较大.提出用能值理论模型测算国际贸易中内涵的生态足迹.能值理论模型所使用的能量折算系数、能值转换率等参数在自然生态系统中相对稳定,测算结果相对更加准确.为了反映国际贸易的生态资源利益分配,基于测算的贸易足迹定义了生态贸易条件.对1991-2010年中国贸易足迹的实际测算显示,1991-1995年中国进出口贸易足迹基本平衡,生态贸易条件在波动中趋于上升;而1995年以后进口足迹增长远快于出口足迹增长,净进口足迹不断增大,生态贸易条件不断下降.对净进口足迹影响因素的实证分析表明,总人口、人均收入、每千美元GDP的能源使用量对净进口足迹有显著的正向作用,而第三产业比重对净进口足迹也有不太显著的正向影响.

Ecological footprint can be uesd to study ecological effects and sustainability of international trade quantitatively. Traditional ecological footprint accounting methods have the shortcomings of unstable parameters and neglecting ecological comparative advantage of different areas, thus leading to a relatively great accounting error. This paper initially uses Emergy Model to account ecological footprint embodied in international .trade. The parame- ters used in Emergy Model, like Coefficient of energy conversion and Emergy conversion rate, are relatively stable in natural ecosystem, thus bringing a relatively accurate accounting of ecological footprint. Besides, to reflect the ecological interests distribution of international trade, this paper defines Ecological Terms of Trade（ETT）, using ecological footprint embod- ied in trade. The accounting of Ecological Footprint of China＇s Import and Export Trade from 1991 to 2010 shows that China＇s trade footprint keeps balanced from 1991 to 1995, and Ecological Terms of Trade tend to rise in volatility; import footprint increases faster than export footprint after 1995, and net import footprint increases continually, and Ecological Terms of Trade decreases continually. Empirical study on influencing factor of net import footprint implies that total population, per capita income and the amount＇ of energy use per thousand dollars GDP all have positive effects on net import footprint significantly, and the proportion of the third industry also affects, not too significantly, net import footprint positively.