美国视角下的中美权势转移——基于《外交》近二十年相关刊文的研究

Power Transition between the U.S.and China from an American Perspective:Research based on Twenty Years of Articles in Foreign Affairs

文章对《外交》近20年相关刊文的统计分析及实证研究显示,美国精英对中美权势转移这一命题的主流观点是,正在发生的趋势并非表现为美国的衰落而是中国的崛起。现实情况是,美国既在军事、教育、科技、创新和人口结构等方面存在优势,同时也面临着财政赤字、政治僵局和贫富差距等问题。与此同时,中国社会也发生了巨大的变化,尽管存在创新能力不足等一系列问题,但未来十几年中国经济保持7%的年增长率是极有可能的,即使低于这一增长率,未来中国在经济领域的优势依然十分巨大。综合来看,中美冲突并非不可避免。

This article offers statistical analysis of nearly 20 years of relevant content from Foreign Affairs magazine.It finds that the mainstream view of American elites towards power transition between the U.S.and China is that current trends do not represent American decline,but China's rise.The reality is that while America has an advantage with respect to military,education,science and technology,innovation and population structure,at the same time it faces a serious fiscal deficit,political stagnation and growing disparities between the rich and poor.For China's part,its society is presently undergoing tremendous change,and while it faces a range of problems including lack of capacity to innovate,it is highly probable that China will maintain growth rates of 7% or greater for several decades to come.Even if its growth rates fall below this level,China's future economic advantage is highly evident.In sum,conflict between China and the U.S.is by no means inevitable.