民主国家组成的联盟更持久吗?——基于18151989年双边军事联盟数据的实证分析

Do Alliances between Democratic States Last Longer? Analysis based on Data of Military Alliances from 1815 to 1989

“民主联盟持久论”是近年来西方学者关于联盟持久性研究的一项成果。该理论认为，民主国家组成的联盟比其他形式的联盟（非民主国家组成的联盟或民主国家与非民主国家组成的联盟）更持久。得出这一结论的主要依据是民主价值观、文化的共性以及民主制度的约束力。此外，西方学者还普遍通过这一实证检验结果，证明“民主联盟可靠论”。但是，在对民主国家的样本、打破联盟协议的国内成本以及此种理论的局限性进行考察之后可以发现，民主国家和非民主国家在履行联盟协议方面并没有太大差别。对此，文章提出了两个相反的假设，即非民主国家组成的联盟更持久和民主国家与非民主国家组成的联盟更持久，并基于1815-1989年双边军事联盟样本，运用生存分析中的Cox比例风险模型对“民主联盟持久论”进行检验。在控制了联盟成员国间实力关系、文化背景、国际结构、联盟的制度化水平、联盟意图和地理位置等其他变量后发现，民主国家和非民主国家组成的联盟比其他形式的联盟持续时间更长，即民主国家和非民主国家组成的联盟更持久。

In recent years,Western scholars working on the duration of alliances have developed the 'democratic alliance durability theory',which argues that alliances formed between democratic states last longer than other types of alliances(alliances between non-democratic states or alliances formed between democratic and nondemocratic states).This conclusion is based primarily on the observation that common democratic values,culture and democratic institutions have the power to bind states.Western scholars universally rely on this empirical finding to demonstrate the 'dependability of democratic alliances.' However,looking carefully at examples of democratic alliances and considering the limitations of this theory,it is argued that there is not much difference between the ways that democratic and non-democratic states implement alliances when it comes to the domestic costs of breaking an alliance agreement.Based on this observation,two converse hypotheses are explored to test the democratic alliance durability theory:(1) that alliances formed by non-democratic states are more durable;and(2) that alliances between democratic and non-democratic states are more durable.In testing these hypotheses,the article uses a dataset of cases of bilateral military alliances from 1815 to 1989 and applies a Cox proportional hazard model.Controlling for power relations between members of an alliance,cultural background,international structure,level of institutionalization of an alliance,the purpose of an alliance,geographical position and other variables,it is found that alliances formed between democratic and non-democratic states last longer than other types of alliances.In other words,alliances between democratic and non-democratic states are more durable.