对外开放对金融发展的抑制效应之谜

The Inhibitory Effect of Openness on Financial Development in China

本文研究中国对外开放是否以及如何影响金融发展。文章分别使用贸易开放和金融开放指标度量对外开放度,通过分省数据建立面板数据模型,分析2000～2009年期间对外开放是否影响中国的金融发展程度。为确保分析结果具有稳健性,文章引入规模、效率和竞争等细化指标度量我国金融发展的不同层面。实证结果表明,对外开放度的提升并未对我国金融发展带来显著推动作用,反而呈现抑制效应。本文认为,我国贸易开放和金融开放不相协调,金融结构与贸易结构不相匹配,从而造成对外开放反向抑制金融发展的结果。

Based on dynamic panel data model, this paper uses the data of 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2000 -2009 to analyze the impact of openness （trade openness and financial openness） on financial development in China. Moving beyond existing literature, we have considered a wider range of financial indicators, including the size, efficiency and competition of financial system to ensure the robustness of results. The result shows that the promotion of openness does not have a significantly positive effect on China＇s financial development. Instead, trade openness can hinder the improvement of size and efficiency of the financial system. We attribute the negative link to the discordance between trade openness and financial openness as well as the mismatch between trade structure and financial structure in China.