货币政策转向与非对称效应研究

A Study on China's Monetary Policy Shift and Its Asymmetric Effects

本文立足近年来中国货币政策基调频繁转向的现实背景,通过构建多变量Logistic平滑迁移向量自回归(LSTVAR)模型证实,中国货币政策具有非对称效应,相同规模的紧缩性和扩张性货币政策效果存在差异,并且相同货币政策工具的实施效果还依赖于宏观经济处于特定的经济区制。准确判断宏观经济状态,修正经济"增长主义"的政策导向,并以此制定科学合理的政策组合,对于破解政策困境、实现经济健康发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Based on the fact that China＇s monetary policy orientation has frequently shifted since the outbreak of the recent financial crisis, this paper built up a multivariate logistic smooth transition vector auto - regression （LSTVAR） model. It proves the existence of asymmetric effect of China＇s monetary＂ policy. Expansive and tight monetary policies at the same scale tend to cause different effects and the effect of certain monetary policy tool depends on the particular economic regime. It is proposed that the central bank should rectify its policy tenet almost solely targeting economic growth and implement artful policy portfolios against accurately identified economic regime. This makes great sense, both theoretically and practically, to crack current policy dilemma and maintain healthy economic development.