我国财政支农资金对农民收入增长的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Study on Relationship between Peasant Income and Capital of Financial Support Agriculture Based on the VAR Modal

"三农"问题是我国经济持续发展的关键问题,其中农民的增收问题又是"三农"问题中的核心,只有解决好农民的收入问题,农业、农村问题才能根本解决。文章选取我国1985—2011年的时间序列数据,基于VAR模型运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等方法描述财政支农资金与农民收入增长之间的关系。结果表明我国财政支农资金对农民收入增长有长期的推动作用,但从短期来看,财政支农支出不是农民收入增长的原因,而农民收入增长是财政支农支出的原因;财政支农资金对农民人均纯收入的增长有积累效应,随着时间的推移这种效应不断增大,但总体来看,这种正向冲击还是偏弱。最后依据以上的分析,提出有利益于提高农民收入的政策建议。

The issues of agriculture,countryside and peasant are the key elements of sustainable economic development in China. Increasing peasant income is the core problem of the issue of agriculture,countryside and peasant. Only by increasing peasant income,can the agriculture and countryside problems be solved. To describe the relationship between peasant income and capital of finance support agriculture,the author selected the time series data 1985-2011 and applied the Co-integration Test,Granger Causality Test,Impulse Response Analysis based on the VAR model. The result shows that capital of finance support agriculture has a long-term role in increasing peasant income,but in the short run,fiscal expenditure for agriculture is not the reason of peasant income growing. And the increase of peasant income is the reason of fiscal expenditure for agriculture. The expenditure has a cumulative effect on per capita net income growth. And with the passage of time,the effect is increasing,but overall,the positive shock is weak. Finally we can put forward suggestions on policy for increasing peasant income.