交通运输业能源消耗结构预测模型

Transportation Energy Consumption Structure Prediction Model

针对交通运输业能源消耗特点,建立基于马尔科夫链的交通运输业能源消耗结构预测模型;提出依据情景假设设置转移矩阵的相关参数的计算方法;对2010～2015年交通运输业能源消耗结构进行了预测.研究结果表明到"十二五"末期,我国交通运输业能源消耗结构优化速度将进一步加快,煤炭和油品的比例逐渐下降,电力、天然气及新能源结构比例上升幅度较大.

According to the characteristics of transportation energy consumption,establishing based on Markov chain transportation energy consumption structure prediction model;Puts forward the calculation method according to the related parameters of the scenario settings transfer matrix;Transportation energy consumption structure for 2010～2015 are predicted.The results showed that until the ＂Twelfth Five＂ final,China’s transportation energy consumption structure optimization speed will further speed up,the proportion of coal and oil gradually decreased,electricity,natural gas and new energy structure has risen by a big margin.