情景规划方法在大区域城镇化研究中的应用——基于劳动力供需模型

APPLICATION OF SCENARIO PLANNING METHOD IN REGIONAL URBANIZATION RESEARCH: BASED ON THE LABOR SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL

转型是中国城镇化发展的大趋势。正确的城镇化政策制定有赖于对未来发展的把握。本文运用情景规划方法,借助经济学的"供给-需求"模型,建立了基于产业导向的城镇化发展模型。模型建立的目的是明晰不同城镇化发展的情景及其成因,从而设计针对性的调控政策以引导城镇健康发展。以湖北省为例进行的实证研究证明,在现有资料的基础上,情景规划方法是大区域城镇化发展研究中的有效工具,其研究结论具有决策参考价值。

Transformation is the trend of China＇s urbanization, and sound urbanization policy making is based on the prediction of future development. This paper, applying the scenario planning method and the supply and demand model of economics, builds an urbanization model based on industrial orientation. The purpose of the model setup is to clarify the mechanism and causes for different urbanization scenarios, and design pertinent policies to guide China＇s urbanization to develop in the right way. The empirical study on Hubei Province indicates that scenario planning method, based on the published materials, is an effective tool in regional urbanization research, with research conclusions being valuable to policy making.