摘要
越浪是造成海堤破坏的主要因素。上海地区三面临海,海堤防御能力直接关系上海城市安全。针对海堤安全问题,以临港地区典型海堤为例,将越浪量作为造成海堤失效的风险因素,利用蒙特卡洛(MC)法计算由于越浪造成的海堤失效概率,计算得到临港大堤在设计使用年限内遭受破坏的概率约为8.78×10^(-7)。结果可为上海市海堤防御评估、海堤设计、使用和维护提供参考依据和借鉴。
Damage by overtopping is the main damage to dikes. Shanghai is the city faces sea from three direction, the dike defence capability is very important to the city. The Lingang dike is set as an example to be studied in this paper. Overtopping is considered as the risk factor that will make the dike failure. The failure probability is computed by using the Monte Calo Method. The result of Lingang dike failure probability due to overtopping in design life is about 8.78×10^-7. The computational result can be used to give some information to the evaluation of dikes in Shanghai, to the design, use and maintenance of dike.
出处
《上海水务》
2013年第2期48-51,共4页
Shanghai Water
