供应链网络风险传播SIS-RP模型及仿真

Simulation of SIS-RP model in supply chain network risk propagation

将复杂网络病毒传播动力学中的易染状态-感染状态-易染状态(SIS)模型引入到供应链风险传播研究中,建立了供应链网络风险传播模型(SIS-RP).并以小世界网络为例,从整个供应链网络角度对SIS-RP模型进行了仿真分析.研究表明,各企业应对风险干扰能力的提高能很好遏制风险在供应链网络中的传播,SIS-RP模型能在一定程度上反映风险在供应链网络中的传播演化过程,初步验证了复杂网络理论在研究供应链风险传播问题方面的适用性.

This paper develops a risk propagation model （SIS-RP） for supply chain risk management （SCRM） based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible （SIS） model. It takes the small world network as an illustration, and uses simulation analysis method to analyze this model in supply chain network perspective. The ~：esults indicate that the risk propagation can be controlled by improving the anti-interference ability in supply chain network. The SIS-RP model can reflect evolution process of risk in supply chain network to a certain extent, and the feasibility of complex network theory used in the supply chain risk propagation study is preliminarily demonstrated.