江西省“十二五”期间违法用地趋势和倾向性分析

Analysis of tendency of illegal land use during the 12^(th) Five-Year Plan Period in Jiangxi Province

收集了江西省2003—2010年土地违法用地数据,从理论上分析了土地违法治理政策、经济增长、城镇化水平以及土地财政对土地违法作用机理,选取历年间土地违法用地面积与其各影响因素来构建多元线性回归模型和灰色模型,以期揭示土地违法的直接原因以及预测江西省"十二五"时期的违法用地面积,最后结合江西省当前土地管理特点来分析未来违法用地趋势性和倾向性问题.

This paper collects data of illegal land use between 2003-2010 in Jiangxi Province,and theoretically analyzes the influence of illegal land management policy,economic growth,urbanization level and land finance on illegal land use.Multiple linear regression model and grey model are constructed with illegal land area and the influencing factors in order to reveal the direct causes of illegal land use and forecast its severity by the end of 12th Five-Year Plan Period.Finally,combining the current situation and characteristics of land management in Jiangxi Province,the paper analyzes the trends and tendency of illegal land use in the future.