摘要
与发达国家不同,我国正处于快速城镇化发展阶段,迫切需要在运输需求预测理论与方法上的创新.为了更科学地进行运输需求预测工作,从而对运输需求有系统精准的把握,基于'运输系统是一类开放的复杂巨系统'及'运输需求预测是一类复杂性问题'的认知,将系统工程中'从定性到定量'的综合集成方法论引入运输需求预测之中,提出基于综合集成方法论的运输需求预测方法,并给出具体执行操作流程.以浙江省城际轨道交通客流预测为例,将研究成果应用于实际的工程项目之中,验证了其有效性.实践结果表明,'从定性到定量'、'人机结合,以人为主'的运输需求预测综合集成方法能够较好地保证预测结论的准度和精度,同时也具有较强的可操作性.
Nowadays,it is necessary to improve theory and methods for transport demand forecasting in China since the country is now different from many developed countries—in its stage of rapid urbanization.To forecast the transport demands more appropriately and consequently comprehend the transport demands more deeply,a meta-synthesis based method and corresponding work procedure for transport demand forecasting is proposed in this paper.The method is from the aspect that a transport system is categorized into an open complex giant system and the transport demand forecasting is considered as a complex problem.The feasibility of the method is proved in its application to a passenger flow forecasting for intercity railways system in Zhejiang province of China.The practice shows that the method could result in more accurate and reliable results as well as a good performance for use.
出处
《交通运输系统工程与信息》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期25-32,共8页
Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology
基金
国家高技术研究发展(863)计划(2007AA11Z236)
中国博士后科学基金(2012M520901)
关键词
系统工程
运输需求预测
综合集成方法
四阶段法
城际轨道交通
system engineering
transportation demand forecast
meta-synthesis
four step method
intercity railways
