铁路集装箱运量中长期预测模型研究

Long-term Forecasting Model of Railway Container Freight Volume

通过考虑国民经济的长期趋势、产业结构、生产布局、运输结构、消费水平等影响铁路集装箱运量的不同因素,选用能够容纳多种影响因素的经济计量方法构建铁路集装箱运量中长期预测模型.根据不同影响因素的特点,将其分别设置为内生变量、外生变量和前期内生变量,形成集装箱运量预测的基本方程组结构.通过对模型的估计和检验(包含整理检验和最终检验)可知,所构建的模型体系误差率较小,具有较高的精度,可用于铁路集装箱运量的预测,为铁路集装箱运输发展规划提供基础数据依据.

A railway container freight volume forecasting model is proposed in this paper based on econometric techniques,which can accommodate multi-influencing factors.Some influencing factors are considered in this forecasting model,such as long-term trends of the national economy,industrial structure,layout of production,railway transport structure,level of the consumption,etc.All these factors are respectively set to be endogenous variable,exogenous variable or prior endogenous variables that based on characteristics of different factors.Then the equations formation of the forecasting model is present.In the last section,the paper estimates and testes（including global and final tests） the proposed model.Test results show the error rate of the model is small,and has high precision.Thus the model can be used for forecasting of railway container freight volume,and it also provides basic data for planning and development of railway container transportation.