BOT项目特许权期决策方法研究

Study on Decision Method of BOT Concession Period

特许经营期长短的决定是高速公路BOT特许权经营的一个核心问题。由于在特许经营期的确定直接关系到东道国政府和项目公司的利益分配,如果特许权期限较长,东道国的利益受损;特许权期限较短则会影响项目公司的利益,这都会导致BOT项目的失败。本文分析了一些影响特许权经营期的因素,并分析了这些因素对特许权经营期决策的影响,建立了基于蒙特卡罗方法来确定特许经营期的模型,从而提供了更系统的理论方法来判断和决策BOT项目特许经营期。

concession period length decision is one of the core problems of Expressway BOT concession.In determining the concession period is directly related to the interests of the host government and the item company distribution,if the concession period is longer,the host country＇s interests;the concession period shorter will affect the interests of item company,which will lead to the failure of BOT projects.This paper analyzes some factors affecting the concession period,and analyze the effects of these factors on concession period decision-making,based on the Monte Carlo method to determine the concession period model,the theory method system which provides to judge and decision-making of BOT project concession period.