基于ERPT效应的我国货币政策与汇率政策协调性研究

Research on the Coordination of Monetary Policy and Exchange Policy Based on the ERPT Effect

通过ARDL模型对我国名义有效汇率对物价水平的ERPT效应进行了测度,发现现阶段我国货币政策与汇率政策各自都较合乎情理,但是二者并没有达成一种相互协调的整体。在目前ERPT效应相对较低(货币政策的稳定情况影响效应的大小)和支出转换效应效果不明显的现实情况下,保证货币政策稳健、及时、有效,并对货币供给的自主控制将成为我国央行的首要目标,而适度的放开名义汇率的浮动范围将成为实现这一目标的有效途径。

Through measuring the ERPT effect of the nominal effective exchange rate on the price level based on ARDL model, it is found that China＇s monetary policy and exchange rate policy is reasonable perspectively, but not in harmany. As the ERPT effect is relatively low and expenditure switching effect is not obvious now, timely and effective monetary policy, and contrallable money supply will become China＇s central bank＇s primary objective. Liberalization of the nominal exchange rate floating range is an effective way to achieve this goal.