阜新地区乡镇最低温度因子分析

Township Minimum Temperature Factor Analysis in Fuxin Region

采用基于主成分的因子分析对阜新地区58个乡镇加密自动站2011年1月的最低温度进行分析。结果表明,影响该时段乡镇最低温度空间分布的因子有共性因子和表示差异性的因子2个;根据2个因子的影响程度大小,将乡镇分为两类,两类分别与阜新县观测站、彰武县观测站聚为一类。在今后的乡镇预报订正中,当出现类似的天气情况时,可参考此结论。先由数值预报做出城镇预报,再根据已知的空间聚类结果,对乡镇预报进行订正,以提高乡镇预报准确率,更好地实现为农服务。

Based on principle component analysis,the minimum temperature in Jan.2011 in 58 township stations in Fuxin Region was analyzed.The results showed that there are twao factors affecting the spatial distribution of the minimum temperature of the township,one is common factor,another is a factor showing difference.According to influencing degree of factors,townships were divided into two categories,and they were clustered with Fuxin County and Zhangwu County observing station respectively.In the future,when the weather conditions are similar can refer to this conclusion,first using numerical forecast to predict urban,then according to spatial clustering results,township forecasting was corrected,so as to improve accuracy rate township forecasting and better realize agricultural service.