欧盟主要国家经济形态变化的对比分析——基于经济周期的研究视角

Comparative Analysis of Economic Form Changes in Main European Countries from Business Cycle Perspective

从经济周期视角分析了爆发欧洲主权债务危机的五国和英德法共八个欧盟主要国家的经济形态,认为2007年美国次贷危机以来这些国家的经济周期相关性显著但是又有所不同。通过构建经济形态二维坐标图具体分析了欧盟主要国家在金融危机和欧债危机期间的经济特征,对比分析了这些国家经济形态变化的区别及其背后的产业结构等深层次原因。最后对欧盟未来的经济形势和前景进行了展望。

From a business cycle perspective, this paper analyzes the economic forms in 8 EU countries including PIIGS suf- fering the European sovereign debt crisis, Great Britain, Germany and France. It asserts that these countries have bad strong but different pertinence of business cycle since the subprime crisis in 2007. Through the construction of two-dimensional plot of eco- nomic form, a study is made on the economic features in main EU countries during the financial crisis and European debt crisis. This paper makes a comparative analysis on the differences in the economic form changes and other deep reasons such as industri- al structure in these EU countries. Finally, it makes a forward-looking prediction for EU＇ s future economic situation and its pros- pects.