“中国出口商品结构之谜”——一个垂直专业化解释视角

The Myth of China’s Exporting Structure:A Vertical Specialization Perspective

本文使用联合国Comtrade数据库1995-2011年的中国和OECD成员国(美国除外)出口到美国的HS 6位编码数据(约180多万组数据)计算出中国和OECD成员国出口到美国的产品相似指数,经过实证分析,主要结论有:对"中国出口商品结构之谜"的一个合理解释是中国仅是该庞大全球生产链条上的最后一环,即使中国最终出口的是高技术产品,但是在中国的生产链条很可能是相对低技能劳动力密集的工序,中国"出口商品的精密(复杂)性"实则是国际生产分割的结果。外商投资企业比重高的行业与OECD成员国出口商品结构相似性高,易在人们观察经济现象时产生所谓的"虚假的技术繁荣",即按照通常的出口商品技术含量或复杂度测度指标计算,我国的出口商品不断向高增加值链条攀升,但实则是低技能劳动力组装的出口商品技术含量的提升,我国并没有从中获取"核心技术"或大量有效发明专利。

Relying on the HS 6-bit encoded data （more than 180 million data- sets） of China and OECD countries （excluding the United States） on exports to the US dated between 1995 and 2011, this paper attempts to calculate the Export Similarity Index （ESI） of exports by China and OECD countries to the US. A reasonable vertical specialization-based explanation follows the empirical analysis in this paper. Major conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the ＂structural myth＂ grows on China because China serves as the final link of the vast global produc- tion chain, and while China may eventually export high-tech products, its produc- tion chain is likely to be characterized by relatively low-skilled and labor-inten- sive processes. China＇s ＂complexity （sophistication） of exports＂ is in reality a result of international production division. Secondly, industries with higher propor- tions of foreign-invested enterprises show higher similarity with OECD countries in terms of export structures, hence higher ESI. Such industries are more condu- cive to the so-called ＂delusive technology prosperity＂ . In such prosperity phe- nomena, the country＇s export commodities seem to continue to move towards the high value-added production chain according to indicators calculated in accor- dance with the usual technical content or complexity of export commodities, but behind the myth, what are really improved of technical content are only export commodities assembled by low-skilled labor in China, revealing the fact that Chi- na does not derive ＂core technology＂ nor multiple effective patents for inven- tions from the ＂prosperity＂