进出口增长与净出口隐含碳减排的协同研究--基于浙江省数据的分析

Collaboration between Import and Export Growth and Embodied CO_2 Emission Reduction in Net Export:A Data Analysis of Zhejiang Province

本文基于对浙江省进出口增长的预测,对未来净出口隐含CO2排放量(NECE)做出了估计。首先根据进出口需求模型并结合影响因素的未来基准情形假定,预计2010-2020年浙江省进口和出口分别年均增长3.9%和16.0%,净出口额将进一步扩大;其次,基于对外贸易现状、投入产出表、能源平衡表、IPCC的能源碳排放系数,计算出1995-2010年浙江省进口和出口隐含CO2量分别年均增长8.9%和17.3%,NECE呈增大趋势。最后,利用进出口发展趋势对NECE进行测算,预计2010-2020年浙江省NECE将以15.1%的速度继续增大。综上所述,本文得出进出口增长和净出口隐含碳减排不可兼得的研判,并就此提出了政策建议。

Based on the predicted import and export growth of Zhejiang Prov- ince, this paper estimates future embodied CO2 emission in net export （NECE） with the below steps. Firstly, according to the import and export demand model and combining assumptions of future baseline scenarios of influential factors, this paper calculates that the average growth rate of import and export of Zhejiang Province during 2010-2020 will be 3.9% and 16% respectively per year, with the net export to expand further. Secondly, based on the status quo of Zhejiang＇s for- eign trade, Input-Output Table, Energy Balance Sheet and the CO2 emission coeffi- cients of various energies defined by IPCC, this paper estimates that the annual growth rate of CO2 emission embodied in Zhejiang＇s import and export would reach 8.9% and 17.3% respectively during 1995-2010, with NECE taking on a ex- panding trend. Finally, according to estimations of import and export trends above, NECE is expected to increase continually at a growing speed of 15.1%. To sum up, this paper concludes that trade growth and NECE reduction cannot be both promoted at the same time. Some policy measures, however, can be tak- en to optimize the import and export structure, such as increasing import proper- ly, and innovation in production technology can also work to ease this contradic- tion.