贸易隐含碳与污染天堂假说--环境库兹涅茨曲线成因的再解释

Embodied Carbon Emission and Pollution Heaven Hypothesis:Re-explaining Environmental Kuznets Curve

本文在对中国贸易隐含碳排放研究的基础上,使用污染天堂假说对环境库兹涅茨曲线理论进行再解释,深入分析污染天堂假说理论中蕴含的以贸易流、投资流为现象的高碳产业跨国界转移的实质。通过对中美高碳行业与低碳行业NETXC指数变化趋势的对比分析发现,我国正在成为美国转移机械、交通运输制造业等高碳行业的"污染天堂"。中国1990-2010年的数据回归分析结果表明,贸易与消费是造成我国人均碳排放增加的主要原因,对外投资并未对我国的"碳环境"造成压力。

Following a study of embodied carbon emission in trade, this pa- per re-explains Environmental Kuznets Curve theory with Pollution Heaven Hy- pothesis in an effort to elicit the essence of the cross-border transfer of carbon intensive industries epitomized in trade and investment flows. By analyzing the transfer of carbon intensive industries from the US to China through NETXC in- dex, this paper finds that China has become the Pollution Heaven of the US in industries of machinery and transportation equipment. The results from OLS re- gression of China＇s 1990-2010 data show that trade and consumption are main causes contributing to China＇s carbon emission increase, while FDI does not harm China＇s ＂carbon environment＂ .