征收碳关税对中国出口贸易和国民福利的影响——基于中美贸易和关税数据的实证研究

Influence of Carbon Tariff on China’s Export and National Welfare:An Empirical Research Based on China-US Trade and Tariff Data

美国宣称自2020年起,要对中国、印度等国家的进口产品征收碳关税,这无疑会对中国出口贸易和国民福利产生重大影响。本文通过构建一般均衡模型,同时利用中美两国的贸易和关税数据进行时间序列分析,得到以下结论:征收碳关税将导致出口产品价格下降,出口规模缩减,国民福利受损;出口国国内开征碳税,会使出口价格上升,产量减少,但对出口规模的影响不明确;在30/60美元碳关税率下,短期内中国对美国出口将下降1.38%-6.44%,国民福利损失1.02%-4.76%;在长期冲击将加剧,出口下降8.69%-40.54%,国民福利损失6.54%-30.52%。

The US claimed that it would levy carbon tariff on commodities imported from China and India from 2020. Not surprisingly, this would be a great shock to China＇s export trade and national welfare. This paper constructs a general equilibrium model and carries out a time series analysis using China-US trade and tariff data, concluding with the following findings： levying carbon tariff will cause a downward shift in prices of export products, thus reducing export scale and undermining China＇s national welfare; exporting countries＇ levying car- bon tax domestically will work to increase export prices, thus reducing the yield, but the effect on export scale is unclear; under a $30/60 carbon tariff rate, China ＇s exports to the United States will decline by 1.38% to 6.44% in the short run, and China＇s national welfare will fall by 1.02% to 4.76%; the long term impact will be dramatically aggravated with exports expected to decrease by 8.69% to 40.54% and national welfare by 6.54% to 30.52%.