商业周期中的外商直接投资与中国经济波动

Inward FDI and China’s Economic Fluctuation along Business Cycles

对于发展中国家来说,外商直接投资不仅能够弥补资本缺口,而且还通过溢出效应提供了技术示范和制度样板,但同时也带来了环境污染、挤压效应、利润外流,甚至金融风险等负效应。本文首先分析了中国宏观经济的一些特征事实,其次运用随机动态一般均衡方法建立了包含外商直接投资冲击的实际经济周期模型,将模型参数校准到和中国经济发展的特征事实相一致,并比较了模型经济和实际经济的接近程度,以研究外商直接投资影响我国经济增长和波动的方式和程度。研究结果表明,加入外商直接投资冲击的实际经济周期模型较好地模拟了我国实际经济波动的特征。外商直接投资冲击的脉冲响应函数表明,外商直接投资冲击对产出、国内投资、劳动等产生了负向的冲击,而对消费的冲击是正向的。

This paper analyzes some stylized facts of China＇s macro econo- my at first, and then uses Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium method to es- tablish a concrete business cycle model that includes foreign direct investment （FDI） impact. Then we use logarithm linearizing method to examine the model and use calibration method to confirm parameters of the model. This concrete business cycle model that engages FDI impact proves to be able to well simulate the features of actual economic fluctuations. According to impulse response func- tion of the FDI impact, FDI has a negative impact on output, domestic invest- ment and labor, while the impact on consumption is positive. At the end of the paper, several reasonable policy suggestions on introducing FDI are proposed.