中东地缘政治新格局与伊朗核危机

New Geopolitical Situation in the Middle East Area and the Iranian Nuclear Crisis

2011年以来,冲突和动荡席卷整个中东地区。中东地缘动荡呈现"串珠式"和"多点开花"态势,伊斯兰势力逐渐崛起成为中东地缘格局中的新"增长极",中东的地缘政治重心的"双核"格局逐渐成型,"三角格局"态势渐趋明朗化。中东地缘新形势客观上为伊朗扩大地区影响、推进核计划提供了契机,但其地缘形势同时也面临诸多挑战。目前,中东地缘政治变局并没成为美国武力解决伊朗核危机的最佳突破口,制裁、渗透和威慑将是美国对伊朗战略的首选。伊朗核危机再次陷入"紧张—缓和—再紧张—再缓和"的"无限死循环"可能性极大。

Since the beginning of the year 2011,conflicts and turmoil have swept across the Middle East,and geopolitical situation of the Middle East has appeared new changes.The Middle East geopolitical instability shows ＂beaded type＂ and ＂multi-flowering＂ situation.Islamic forces gradually emerged as a new growth pole in the Middle East geopolitical pattern.The ＂dual-core＂ pattern of geopolitical center in the Middle East has been gradually formed.＂Triangle pattern＂ trend gradually become clear.Although new geopolitical situation objectively expanded Iran＇s regional influences,Iran still must face many challenges.New change of geopolitical situation in the Middle East didn＇t become the best breakthrough for U.S.using military force to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.Sanctions,infiltration and deterrence will be the first choice for U.S.foreign strategy for Iran.It＇s most probably that Iranian nuclear crisis once again fallen into the ＂infinite loop＂ of ＂tensions-ease-retensions-reease＂.