俄罗斯旅华客源市场发展研究

Research on the Development of Russian Visiting-China Market

基于多年连续的、大量的统计数据,从三个不同维度对俄罗斯旅华客源市场进行研究:首先按照时间序列将俄罗斯旅华客源市场划分为缓慢增长、波动增长、持续增长和恢复增长四个阶段;其次根据空间分布对俄罗斯旅华目的地选择进行详细划分,表明俄罗斯游客更倾向于选择游览北方地区和滨海地区;最后根据2005—2010年俄罗斯入境旅游者和旅游外汇收入两组数据,建构GM(1,1)模型并进行精度检验,预测俄罗斯旅华客源市场未来五年发展趋势。

Based on the series of statistics data, this paper analyzes the market charac- teristics of Russian tourists from the following three aspects： firstly, according to the time sequence to divide the market into four stages including slow growth, fluctuation growth, sustained growth and restore growth; secondly, we divide tourist destination from Russia in China according to the spatial distribution and original data which shows that the Rus- sian visitors prefer to choose the northern areas and coastal areas; finally, based on the 2005-2010 inbound tourism data, we build GM （1,1） gray predictive dynamic model and make an accuracy test. Furthermore, the relevant index of inbound tourist from Russia for the next five year is predicted by the model.